BREAKING BAD is looking good for the 2014 Golden Globe Awards.
The recently retired AMC drama appears to be a lock to take home Best TV Drama honors when the gold statues are passed out Sunday night in Beverly Hills.
“With everybody I ever talk to about TV, BREAKING BAD is the show,” says Wynn Las Vegas oddsmaker Johnny Avello, who has placed 4 to 1 odds on the series to win.
(Odds are placed for “entertainment purposes only” as betting on awards shows is not permitted — even in Sin City.)
The Globes is traditionally one of the hardest award shows to handicap — largely because such a small number of voters (representing territories all over the world) determine the winners.
But we asked Avello and Marc Berman, editor of TV Media Insights to give us their best guesses on who will take the small screen’s top six awards.
BEST TV DRAMA
Avello says: “HOUSE OF CARDS is good, but I don’t think it has anywhere near the following of BREAKING BAD. DOWNTON ABBEY seems to have lost a little steam. THE GOOD WIFE certainly isn’t good enough to win it. Same with MASTERS OF SEX. It is almost like a process of elimination. I believe BREAKING BAD will go out strong. It is one of my bigger favorites on the entire board.”
Berman says: “When you think back, when was the last time a show picked up so much steam in its final season? The answer is never. This was a small cult favorite and by the end of its run it turned into a mass appeal hit. It was such a sensation and everybody was running to catch up on the earlier seasons. I know some people didn’t really like the ending, but I really do think it lived up to its potential and left with a bang. It is a show that should win and I really think the Foreign Press will agree.
We say: It’s tempting to say HOUSE OF CARDS could provide an upset, as it’s a newcomer and the HFPA might see Netflix’s distribution model (releasing every episode all at once) as groundbreaking. But we all know this is BREAKING BAD’s award to lose. It won the Emmy in this category a few months ago, and it’s a smart bet that the Globes will follow suit, and give the award to the show that deserves it the most.
BEST TV COMEDY
Avello says: “MODERN FAMILY. Until I see this one go down, I gotta stick with it. I guess THE BIG BANG THEORY would be the most logical second choice. PARKS & RECREATION isn’t good enough to win this. Maybe GIRLS is. I would look at GIRLS as a long shot. But I am just going with a show that has been a winner here consistently for the last three or four years.”
Berman says: “I don’t think a year ever passes that something doesn’t happen on the Globes that makes you go, ‘Are you kidding me?‘ So I think they are going to give it to BROOKLYN NINE-NINE. It has gotten a ton of positive press. The critics love it. The ratings are lacking, but it is just one of those show that just resonates in terms of the critics. I could be totally out of my mind. I think it is going to be BROOKLYN NINE-NINE. But it should be THE BIG BANG THEORY.
We say: This category is a little bit of a wild card. THE BIG BANG THEORY is a ratings sensation, and would probably be the most logical choice. But GIRLS won the award last year, and I think we’ll be seeing Lena Dunham walking up to the stage again this year. While it would be great to see PARKS & RECREATION or BROOKLYN NINE-NINE get some recognition, GIRLS has the right amount of critical respect and mainstream appeal to make it a pretty safe bet this Sunday night.
LEAD ACTOR – DRAMA
BRYAN CRANSTON – BREAKING BAD [2 to 3]
KEVIN SPACEY – HOUSE OF CARDS [5 to 2]
MICHAEL SHEEN – MASTERS OF SEX [8 to 1]
JAMES SPADER – THE BLACKLIST [15 to 1]
LIEV SCHRIBER – RAY DONOVAN [20 to 1]
Avello says: “I believe Bryan Cranston wins but if not him, it would have to be Kevin Spacey. They have 11 previous nominations between them without a win. It’s about time.”
Berman says: “I think Bryan Cranston should win. I think who will win — and again I could be off my rocker — but I have a strong feeling it is going to be James Spader for BLACKLIST. This is the breakout hit of the season… His performance is really top notch. It has brought a lot of attention to the show and I think he has got a real good shot at winning. But I think it should be Bryan Cranston.”
We say: It’s hard to believe Bryan Cranston has never won a Golden Globe for his work on BREAKING BAD, especially considering how many times we watched him pick up the award at the Emmys year after year. With all the steam that show has picked up over the last year, the time has finally come: Bryan Cranston will absolutely be taking this award home this time around.
LEAD ACTRESS – DRAMA
KERRY WASHINGTON – SCANDAL [2 to 5]
TATIANA MASLANY – ORPHAN BLACK [8 to 1]
JULIANA MARGUILIES – THE GOOD WIFE [9 to 1]
ROBIN WRIGHT – HOUSE OF CARDS [10 to 1]
TAYLOR SCHILLING – ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK [15 to 1]
Avello says: “Kerry Washington – First-time nominee but it would be a “scandal” if she doesn’t win, especially without Claire Danes in the mix.”
Berman says: “It is either going to be Tatiana or Kerry Washington. And I just have a feeling it is going to be the girl from ORPHAN BLACK. Something is telling me it is Tatiana. When you handicap who is going to win, you can’t do it based on who you think is the best. You have to kind of get in their heads. This is the Hollywood Foreign Press. This is a show on BBC America. It has got a ton of buzz. She gives a great performance. I am going with her.”
We say: I’d love to say Tatiana Maslany, because her work on ORPHAN BLACK is nothing short of stellar, but I don’t think the show is a big enough hit to make that much of an impact on voters yet. Washington is a safe choice, but I think the Globes will want at least one category that leaves people surprised, and I think they’ll do just that by giving the award to Robin Wright. Wright was excellent on HOUSE OF CARDS, but she hasn’t gotten the same amount of praise that her co-star Kevin Spacey has, and she may be due. The HFPA will want to give HOUSE OF CARDS something, and I think this is it.
LEAD ACTOR – COMEDY / MUSICAL
MICHAEL J. FOX – THE MICHAEL J. FOX SHOW [9 to 5]
JIM PARSONS – THE BIG BANG THEORY [5 to 2]
ANDY SAMBURG – BROOKLYN NINE-NINE [3 to 1]
JASON BATEMAN – ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT [6 to 1]
DON CHEADLE – HOUSE OF LIES [18 to 1]
Avello says: “Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) is a tight race. Although Fox’s show could be cancelled, that doesn’t take away from his wonderful acting job on the show. He also knows how to win, as he has 4 of these babies in his trophy case.”
Berman says: “I think it should be Jim Parsons, but it will be Michael J. Fox. He is a sentimental favorite. He is very well liked. He has overcome obstacles. And he has shown people that you can still do this job and have Parkinsons. I think they give it to Michael J. Fox. If I had to pick an upset, if it is not Michael J. Fox, then I go with Andy Samberg.”
We say: Jason Bateman brought a lot to this new, unprecedented season of ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT, and it’s possible that the Globes may recognize that due to the high-profile resurrection of the show. But, yes, Michael J. Fox is the clear choice here. He’s so well-liked in Hollywood and in the popular consciousness that even if his show was complete garbage he’d probably still have a decent shot at winning.
LEAD ACTRESS – COMEDY / MUSICAL
Avello says: “Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won a couple of Emmys over the last few years but hasn’t won a Golden Globe in almost 20 years, so she’s overdue. Amy Poehler is right there to snatch it away if Julia doesn’t prevail.”
Berman says: “This one is very easy. It has got to go to Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She should win and will win. She, hands down, gives the best performance. There ain’t no Seinfeld curse, that is for sure. Of any of the categories, that is the easiest to predict. She is nominated for her movie also, but this is the category she is going to win in.”
We say: Amy Poehler has been doing great work on PARKS & RECREATION for years, and never receives nearly as much recognition as she deserves. The HFPA may try to fix that this year, but Julia Louis-Dreyfus deserves it every bit as much as Poehler does, and has the benefit of being on a younger show. Dreyfus will likely take it, but if not, it could finally be Poehler’s time to shine.
The 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards will air Sunday, January 12th, on NBC.
Who do you think the big winners will be? Let us know by leaving a comment below.